Weekend Update – May 15, 2016

It took every last bit of my courage to jump out of a plane.

That was with a parachute and I only did so after suspending all of the logical and rational thoughts that I possessed.

Sometimes you do very uncharacteristic things when you want to impress someone for some other kind of excitement.

No other level of excitement could ever be high enough to get me to further suspend logic to engage in a free fall, though.

I don’t care how exhilarating it might be, staying alive seems more exhilarating to me.

Some free falls don’t require your consent, though and unless you’ve positioned yourself short in advance of the free fall, it’s definitely not an exhilarating process.

The past week was one in which oil wasn’t the prevailing theme even as it had its own large moves.

Instead, it was the free fall of retail, led by Macy’s (M) and Nordstrom (JWN), arguably among the best of the major national retailers, that characterized the stock market.

Of course, Macy’s and then Nordstrom took most every other retailer down with them and were able to drag along many others.

That kind of free fall, though, leaves open the question of exactly where the floor happens to be. 

On a positive note, hitting the floor after a market free fall is probably a lot better than hitting the floor following a recreational free fall and you do get the chance to play the game a bit longer.

What Macy’s and Nordstrom may be telling us, and what Limited Brands (LB) suggested the prior week, is that the consumer isn’t exactly a willing participant and may instead be a lead weight on the economy.

That lead weight won’t speed up a free fall descent, as we are fortunate to be governed by some inviolate laws of physics, but they sure can make it difficult to climb back up again.

With a disappointing Employment Situation Report and disappointing GDP growth, for those, such as myself, who had hoped that perhaps retail could paint a somewhat different picture of consumer participation, there was no different picture.

It seems that investors are appropriately recognizing the weakness in retail and the weakness in job growth as not being worthy of celebration.

Sometimes bad news really is bad news.

There are many more important retailers reporting this week, but it’s not too likely that there will much in the way of upside surprises, unless expectations for Wal-Mart (WMT) are so low and results buoyed by those who, in the past quarter. stopped shopping at Macy’s.

With last week’s loss, we are about to enter the sixth month of the year with the S&P 500 barely 0.1% higher. 

The first 3 months of 2016 was a story of two equal halves moving in big ways and in opposite directions. The past two months, however, have been a story of vacillation and moving nowhere and leaving few fulfilled.

We may find out exactly where the floor may be as the coming week comes to its end.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in the Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

For the first time in 2016 I have a decent number of options contracts expiring as the monthly cycle comes to its end.

For me, 2016 has been a year of very little trading and I’m looking forward to the opportunity to get some assignments and rollovers, as long as that free fall doesn’t continue.

While there are some positions that I wouldn’t mind adding this week, it may be yet another week with very little reason to add any new positions.

Among those that have some interest for me are ex-dividend stocks Mattel (MAT) and Microsoft (MSFT).

I had shares of Mattel assigned at $33 in January 2016, after 15 months of holding.

There was a time when I would have thought that an 18.4 % return, including dividends, for a 15 month period was pretty mediocre.

During that same time period, the S&P 500, without accounting for dividends, was 3.3% higher. 

That’s even more mediocre.

Mediocre may be a good way to describe Mattel, particularly in relationship to Hasbro (HAS), as Mattel just seems to wax and wane along with Barbie. Going on the “Mattel Shop” website doesn’t do too much to make you believe that there is anything exhilarating to be had.

What I do like about Mattel is a chance to buy shares, at a price lower than which I had them assigned away from me and a chance to capture the dividend.

When I last owned Mattel shares it only offered monthly option contracts, but now there are weekly and extended weekly contracts. If buying shares, I would sell the weekly at the money call, but if faced with the need to rollover the position, I would consider a longer term and a higher strike price.

Microsoft has just started to have a little recovery from its sharp earnings related decline. It’s not that often that you can find Microsoft trading at a nearly 10% discount to where it had recently been, but this is one of those opportunities.

It’s not likely held hostage y the price of oil, nor by the fortunes at Macy’s, nor Wal-Mart.

What it has is upside potential following that fall, a nice dividend and an attractive premium.

As it goes ex-dividend, I would likely consider the same strategy, as with Mattel, if faced with the need to rollover the short call option position.

As long as in the technology arena, Cisco (CSCO) reports earnings this week and will be ex-dividend in early July.

Normally, I like to consider the sale of weekly puts on an earnings related trade when it offers a 1% ROI or greater at a strike level that’s outside of the limit defined by the “implied move.”

In Cisco’s case, that’s not the case, as the implied move is 5.6% and the reward that I seek for that risk just isn’t there, at least not for a weekly put sale.

Where I do see some potential for reward is in the belief that Cisco may have already sustained a decline fueled by Microsoft and may have some upside potential in the months following.

For that reason I am considering the purchase of shares and sale of longer term calls prior to earnings being reported. However, if that is more exhilaration than someone is willing to endure, the alternative is to wait until after earnings and then in the event of a decline in price, to consider doing the same, but at a lower strike price.

General Motors (GM) is recovering from its February 2016 lows and doing so through a series of higher lows. I like that pattern and also have an eye on its upcoming ex-dividend date in the early part of June.

With a price increase in mind and that eye toward the dividend, I would consider the purchase of shares and again select a longer term call option sale than I would normally prefer when initiating a new position. In this instance, that would mean a June 2016 or beyond expiration date and select an out of the money strike level.

Finally, if you believe in “death by retail,” there’s always Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF).

These days, no one has great admiration for the company, but you do have to admire the steady climb it made, beginning with earnings in November 2015 and again in February 2016.

Of course, you also have to be in awe of its history of sharp declines, which now includes the past two moths.

Abercrombie and FItch doesn’t report earnings until May 26, 2016 and could easily get dragged down this coming week as other retailers take center stage.

Along with that uncertainty associated both with the sector and with Abercrombie and Fitch itself, the premium for the sale of out of the money puts is fairly attractive.

In the event that shares do take a decline and you are faced with having to take assignment of shares, a decision has to be made as to whether to attempt to rollover those short puts into the week of earnings when the premium will truly be enhanced or to take the assignment.

The key factor may be the, as yet unannounced, ex-dividend date.

Abercrombie and Fitch has an attractive dividend and I am loathe to sell puts in the face of an ex-dividend date.

If the ex-dividend date is n the same week as earnings, I would be more inclined to take assignment of shares and then sell out of the money calls on those newly assigned shares, utilizing a longer term time frame.

If the ex-dividend date is the week following earnings, then I would consider simply rolling over the puts to the week of earnings and then playing it by ear, once again coming to the same decision tree if faced with the option buyer exercising their rights.

These days, dividends and premiums and the chance to serially accumulate them are all the exhilaration that I need or can survive. 

 

Traditional Stocks:  General Motors

Momentum Stocks: Abercrombie and Fitch

Double-Dip Dividend: Mattel (5/17 $0.38), Microsoft (5/17 $0.36)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Cisco (5/18 PM)

 

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable – most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts – in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week, with reduction of trading risk.

 

Weekend Update – May 10, 2015

Many years ago people were fascinated by the movie “The Three Faces of Eve.”

It was the story of a woman afflicted with what was known at the time as “Multiple Personality Disorder,” although many incorrectly believed that the story was one characteristic of an individual with schizophrenia.

For her performance of all 3 characters, none of whom was aware of any of the others, Joanne Woodward won an Oscar for “Best Actress.” Yet 30 years later, in a sign of an unjust society, neither Eddie Murphy nor Arsenio Hall received any notice whatsoever from The Academy for each portraying 4 distinct characters.

While there’s still hope that such acting genius may someday be rewarded, there’s very little hope of being able to understand just what face the market will be showing from day to day.

Doug Kass, a well known hedge fund manager is fond of Tweeting that the market has no memory from day to day and that observation, while not seeming to be offering a diagnosis, has it well characterized.

Lack of memory for important information not explained by ordinary forgetfulness is one of the cardinal signs of Dissociative Identity Disorder and this market, however one wishes to characterize it, may have the same affliction as was suffered by Eve. But as long as it keeps reaching new record highs, it too will keep winning awards for its performance.

While some may say that the market is “acting schizophrenic,” they neither know the distinction between that malady and Dissociative Identity Disorder, nor understand the use of adverbs. While volatility may also be a hallmark of the disorder the rapid alternations between market plunges and surges are doing nothing to enhance volatility. In fact, for all of the uncertainty, volatility remains within easy striking distance of its 52 week low and was virtually unchanged last week.

In a week with very little economic news scheduled until this past Friday’s Employment Situation Report and with most key companies having already reported earnings, there was little reason to expect many large moves. However, as has been the case in recent weeks, there hasn’t always been the requirement of an identifiable reason for the market making a large move. What has also been the case is that so often the very next day brought about a reversal of fortune or mis-fortune of the previous day and another subsequent Doug Kass Tweet.

Those Kass market memory Tweets are fairly common and I do believe that he recalls having sent them on many previous occasions. While I offer him no diagnosis based on those Tweets, they do perfectly sum up the market that we’ve come to know.

The problem is that which just don’t know which market will be showing up from day to day and sometimes from hour to hour.

I wonder if Eve had that same problem?

Compounding the inherent uncertainty occurs when an otherwise dependable and reliable source seems to turn on you.

Mid-week we got to see a Janet Yellen face that we had only seen once previously. It was the face that unlike its more commonly visible counter-part, wasn’t the one that sought directly or indirectly to calm and prop up stock markets.

During her tenure, especially during her post-FOMC Statement release press conferences, most of us have come to appreciate the boost of confidence Janet Yellen has supplied markets, as well as having an appreciation for the manner in which she balances pragmatic and social concerns with monetary policy.

But this week instead it was that Yellen character that questions stock market value, almost in the same way as a predecessor pointed a finger at “frothy exuberance.”

While not quite as bad as the racy and wild side of Eve that tried to murder her child, the value questioning side of Janet Yellen sent markets for a tumble. But just as after her 2014 comments about “substantially stretched” valuation metrics in bio-technology companies, the impact may be short lived, as it was this week.

Perhaps some thanks for that should go to the auspiciously timed release of the Employment Situation Report that avoided creating either a “bad news is good news” or “good news is bad news” by delivering numbers that were right in line with expectations.

Of course, when considering how much contra-distinction there has been in recent monthly Employment Situation Reports one might be excused for believing that they too suffer from Dissociative Identity Disorder and it may be injurious to one’s portfolio health to base too many actions on any given month’s data.

This coming week is another very slow one for economic news. While earnings season is now winding down the catalyst or the retardant for the market to get to the next new set of highs may be the slew of national retailers reporting earnings this week.

Some 6 months ago those retailers were among those optimistically talking about how they would benefit from increased consumer spending as a result of lower energy prices.

About that….

Those same retailers may be putting on a different face when reporting this week if those gains haven’t materialized, as there are no indications that the GDP has grown as expected.

To the contrary, actually.

Only one of the major retailers will report before this Wednesday’s Retail Sales Report, but it was the CEO of that company, Terry Lundgren, who was initially among the most optimistic regarding the prospects for Macys (NYSE:M) and who months later made the very astute observation that the energy savings experienced by consumers hadn’t accumulated sufficiently to create the feeling of actually having more discretionary cash to spend.

Sooner or later the projections for significant growth in GDP will have to be written off as just the rants of economists who had surrendered their better judgment to their racy and wild alternate egos and who can’t be blamed for their actions.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories.

After the last two weeks, I think, that even after a previous lifetime of toiling away for a paycheck and not really appreciating its significance, I finally understand the meaning of “TGIF.”

The strong recoveries seen in each of the past two Fridays helped to rescue some weeks that were turning out to be fairly dour.

The downside, however, is that when the coming week is about to begin, so many of the stocks that you had been eying for a purchase were up sharply to end the previous week.

There are probably worse problems to have in life, so I won’t dwell too long on that one, but that is where this past Friday’s 267 point gain in the DJIA has us beginning the new week.

Sinclair Broadcasting (NASDAQ:SBGI) has quietly become the largest television station operators in the United States. While seemingly the only topics discussed these days are about streaming signals, satellites and cable there’s still life left in terrestrial television. The family controlled company certainly believes in the future of traditional television broadcasting as over the past several years the company has actively amassed new stations around the country.

Following an initial move higher after it reporting earnings shares gave up some ground and are now about 9% below its recent high from last month, at which time I had my previous shares assigned.

I purchased shares on 5 occasions in 2014 and have been waiting for a chance to do so in 2015. With its recent decline and with this being the final week of a monthly option cycle, I would consider once again adding shares in the hopes of a quick assignment. However, if not assigned, shares are then ex-dividend May 28th and I would consider selling either June or the July 2015 options on those shares.

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) has suffered of late.

It literally started 2015 off by being named one of the worst run companies of 2014 on New Years Day. Its shares continued to stumble even after its CEO unexpectedly resigned a few weeks later as the lure of its Barbie was waning in a world of electronic toys more welcomingly embraced by some of its competitors.

More recently some of the negativity that characterized 2015 had abated as the market actually embraced the smaller than expected loss at the most recent earnings report. While some of the gains have been since digested, Mattel may have now seen what the near term bottom looks like.

With earnings now out of the way for a short while and an upcoming ex-dividend date the following week, I am considering adding shares, but bypassing the week remaining on the monthly May 2015 contract and going directly to the June contract and banking on some share gains and not just option premiums and dividends for the effort.

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) is one of those stocks that I always like to own, as it is an assuming kind of company that tends to reflect what is going on in the economy and is relatively immune from currency exchange issues.

Most recently, after having positively reacted to earnings it failed to climb back toward where it had been at the time of its January earnings report. However, it does appear as if it is building a base to make that assault. As with Sinclair Broadcasting and Mattel, Fastenal only offers monthly options, so any potential purchase this week paired with an option sale could look at the May 15, 2015 contracts, effectively making it a weekly contract, or go directly to the June 2015 expirations, especially if believing that there is some capital appreciation in store for shares.

DuPont (NYSE:DD) and Teva Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:TEVA) have both spent a lot of time in the news lately and both are ex-dividend this week.

DuPont is one stock that came to mind when bemoaning the strong gains seen this past Friday, as it was definitely a beneficiary of broad market strength. It continues to be embroiled in a fight with activists which may have profound ramifications with how investors look at and value a company’s intellectual and research pursuits.

The question of how valuable research activities are to a company if they are part of a separate company is one that pits short term and long term outlooks against one another. Although I tend to trade for the short term, and while I believe that Nelson Peltz is generally a positive influence on the companies in which he has taken a significant financial stake, I disagree with the idea of splitting off assets that are at the core of developing intellectual property.

However, as long as the fighting continues, there is opportunity to see shares climb even higher. It is precisely because of the uncertainty that comes along with the ongoing conflict that DuPont is offering an exceptionally high option premium, particularly in a week that it is ex-dividend.

The world of pharmaceutical companies was once so staid. Every self respecting portfolio was required to own shares in a high dividend paying blue chip pharmaceutical company, many of whom have been swallowed up over the years in the process of creating even larger and less responsive behemoths.

From nothingness, generic drug companies and bio-pharmaceutical companies are becoming their own behemoths and are recently at center stage with seemingly daily merger and acquisition activity.

Teva has joined the crowd seeking to grow through acquisition and may be willing to fight for the opportunity to grow. Of course, its target may have some other ideas, including possibly seeking to purchase Teva itself.

Like DuPont, the uncertainty in the air has it offering a very appealing option premium even in a week that shares are ex-dividend. With shares having recently declined by about 10% in the past month, it’s possible that some of the downside risk that may be associated with a fight or a failed conquest attempt has already been discounted.

Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) reports earnings this week having declined about 25% since its last earnings report. Its CEO, a darling of cable business news blamed the prolonged regulatory process encountered during its proposed purchase of its competitor Trulia, for leaving the company “trending a couple quarters behind where we’d like to be.”

But that comment was from last month, so the expectation would be that the market is prepared for whatever may come their way as earnings are reported this week.

That kind of logic is fine until faced with counter-examples, such as SanDisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) which despite warning upon warning, still managed to surprise everyone. Of course, the same could be said for early 2014 when markets seemed to be surprised by how bad weather impacted earnings after having heard nothing but how weather was effecting sales for months.

In this case the option market is implying an 8.1% move for Zillow after earnings are reported. That’s fairly mild after the past 2 weeks of having seen declines on the order of 25% coming from companies that couldn’t place many excuses for its performance at the feet of currency exchange woes.

Finally, it takes a lot for me to consider a new stock and to think about putting it into portfolio rotation. It’s even more difficult to do that with a company that has less than 6 months of public trading behind it.

I recently found my second ever blog article, one from 8 years ago, which was about peer lending re-posted on an aggregator site. At the time, I looked at peer lending as a potential means of diversifying one’s portfolio, especially with the aim of generating income streams.

While the early leader of the concept is still around, it was LendingClub (NYSE:LC) that finally brought it to the equity markets.

Its earnings last week, despite being slightly better than the consensus, did nothing to stem the downward price spiral since the IPO. The stock’s close tracking of the 10 Year Treasury Note broke down in March, but I believe that with the stock approaching its IPO price that concordance with interest rates will soon be re-established.

If that proves to be the case and there is a suggestion that the bond market may now be on the right path in predicting the inevitable rise in rates, the LendingClub and its shares are likely to prosper.

Like an unusual number of stocks presented this week, LendingClub also offers only monthly options. However, without a dividend to consider, I would look at any potential purchase of shares as a short term trade and would sell the May 2015 options, which are offering a very attractive premium as the possibility of further share price declines are being factored in by the options market.

Traditional Stocks: Fastenal, Mattel, Sinclair Broadcasting

Momentum Stocks: LendingClub

Double Dip Dividend: DuPont (5/13), Teva Pharmaceuticals (5/15)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: Zillow (5/12 PM)

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.

Weekend Update – November 9, 2014

Pity the poor hedge fund manager.

For the second consecutive year hedge fund managers are, by and large, reportedly falling far short of their objectives and in jeopardy of not generating their performance fees. 

We all know that those mortgages aren’t going to pay themselves, so their choices are clear.

You can close up shop, disown the shortfalls and try to start anew; you can keep at business as usual and have your under-performance weigh you down in the coming year; or you can roll the dice.

In 2013 it may have been easy to excuse lagging the S&P 500 when that index was nearly 30% higher while you were engaging in active management and costly complex hedging strategies. This year, however, as the market is struggling to break a 10% gain, it’s not quite as easy to get a bye on a performance letdown.

The good news, however, is that the 2014 hurdle is not terribly far out of reach. Despite setting new high after new high, thus far the gains haven’t been stupendous and may still be attainable for those hoping to see daylight in 2015.

The question becomes what will desperate people do, especially if using other people’s money knowing that half of all hedge funds have closed in the past 5 years. Further more funds were closed in 2013 and fewer opened in 2014 than at any point since 2010. It has been a fallow pursuit of alpha as passivity has shown itself fecund. Yet, assets under management continue to grow in the active pursuit of that alpha. That alone has to be a powerful motivator for those in the hedge fund business as that 2% management fee can be substantial.

So I think desperation sets in and that may also be what, at least in part, explained the November through December outperformance last year as the dice were rolled. Granted that over the past 60 years those two months have been the relative stars, that hasn’t necessarily been the case in the past 15 years as hedge funds have become a part of the landscape.

Where it has been the case has been in those years that the market has had exceptionally higher returns which usually means that hedge funds were more likely to lag behind and in need of catching up and prone to rolling the dice.

While the hedging strategies are varied, very complex and use numerous instruments, rolling the dice may explain what appears to be a drying up in volume in some option trading. As that desperation displaces the caution inherent in the sale of options motivated buyers are looking at intransigent sellers demanding inordinately high premiums. With the clock ticking away toward the end of the year and reckoning time approaching, the smaller more certain gains or enhancements to return from hedging positions may be giving way to trying to swing for the fences.

The result is an environment in which there appears to be decreased selling activity, which is especially important for those that have already sold option contracts and may be interested in buying them back to close or rollover their positions. In practice, the environment is now one of low bids by buyers, reflecting low volatility but high asking prices by sellers, often resulting in a chasm that can’t be closed.

Over the past few weeks I’ve seen the chasm on may stocks closed only in the final minutes of the week’s trading when it’s painfully obvious that a strike price won’t be reached. Only then, and again, a sign of desperation, do ask prices drop in the hopes of making a sale to exact a penny or two to enhance returns.

So those hedge fund managers may be more likely to be disingenuous in their hedging efforts as they seek to bridge their own chasms over the next few weeks and they could be the root behind a flourish to end the year.

Other than a continuing difficulty in executing persona trades, I hope they do catch up and help to propel the market even higher, but I’m not certain what may await around the corner as January is set to begin.

As usual, the week’s potential stock selections are classified as being in Traditional, Double Dip Dividend, Momentum or “PEE” categories. 

I already own shares of Cypress Semiconductor (CY) and am continually amazed at the gyrations its price sees without really going very far. In return for watching the shares of this provider of ubiquitous components go up and down, you can get an attractive option premium that reflects the volatility, but doesn’t really reflect the reality. In addition, if holding shares long enough, there is a nice dividend to be had, as well. Selling only monthly call options, I may consider the use of a December 2014 option and may even consider going to the $11 strike, rather than the safer $10, borrowing a page from the distressed hedge fund managers.

I had my shares of Intel (INTC) assigned early this week in order to capture the dividend. I briefly had thoughts of rolling over the position in order to maintain the dividend, but in hindsight, having seen the subsequent price decline, I’m happy to start anew with shares.

Like the desperate hedge fund managers, I may be inclined to emphasize capital gains on this position, rather than seeking to make most of the profit from option sales, particularly as the dividend is now out of the equation.

I may be in the same position of suffering early assignment on existing shares of International Paper (IP) as it goes ex-dividend this week. With a spike in price after earnings and having a contract that expires at the end of the monthly cycle, I had tried to close the well in the money position, but have been faced with the paucity of reasonable ask prices in the pursuit of buying back options. However, even at its current price, International Paper may be poised to go even higher as it pursues a strategy of spin-offs and delivery of value to its investors.

With decent option premiums, an attractive dividend and the chance of further price appreciation, it remains a stock that I would like to have in my portfolio.

Mosaic (MOS) is a stock that I have had as an inactive component of my portfolio after having traded it quite frequently earlier in the year at levels higher than its current price and last year as well, both below and above the current price. It appears that it may have established some support and despite a bounce from that lower level, I believe it may offer some capital appreciation opportunities, as with Intel. As opposed to Intel, however, the dividend is still in the equation, as shares will go ex-dividend on December 2, 2014. With the availability of expanded weekly options there are a mix of strategies to be used if opening this position.

It seems as if there’s barely a week that I don’t consider adding shares of eBay (EBAY). At some point, likely when the PayPal division is spun off, the attention that I pay to eBay may wane, but for now, it still offers opportunity by virtue of its regular spikes and drops while really going nowhere. That typically creates good option premium opportunities, especially at the near the money strikes.

I currently own shares of Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI) a company that has quietly become the largest owner of local television stations in the United States. It is now trading at about the mid-point of its lows and where it had found a comfortable home, prior to its price surge after the Supreme Court’s decision that this past week finally resulted in Aereo shutting down its Boston offices and laying off employees, as revenue has stopped.

Sinclair Broadcasting will be ex-dividend early in the December 2014 option cycle and offers a very attractive option. It reported higher gross margins and profits last week, as short interest increased in its shares the prior week. I think that the price drop in the past week is an opportunity to initiate a position or add to shares.

Mattel (MAT) is a company that I haven’t owned in years, but am now attracted back to it, in part for its upcoming dividend, its option premium and some opportunity for share appreciation as it has lagged the S&P 500 since its earnings report last month.

However, while holiday shopping season is approaching and thoughts of increased discretionary consumer spending may create images of share appreciation, Mattel has generally traded in a very narrow range in the final 2 months of the year, which may be just the equation for generating some reasonable returns if factoring in the premiums and dividend.

Twitter (TWTR) continues to fascinate me as a stock, as a medium and as a source of so many slings and arrows thrown at its management.

Twitter has always been a fairly dysfunctional place and with somewhat of a revolving door at its highest levels before and after the IPO. While it briefly gained some applause for luring Anthony Noto to become its CFO, the spotlight heat has definitely turned up on its CEO, Dick Costolo.

Last week I sold Twitter puts in the aftermath of its sharp decline upon earnings release. While the puts expired, I did roll some over to a lower strike price as the premium was indicating continued belief in the downside momentum.

This week I’m considering adding to the position, and selling more puts, especially after the latest round of criticisms being launched at Costolo. At some point, something will give and restore confidence. It may come from the Board of Directors, it  may come from Costolo himself or it may even come from activists who see lots of value in a company that could really benefit from the perception of professional management.

I’m not certain how many times I’ve ended a weekly column with a discussion of Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF), but it’s not a coincidence that it frequently warrants a closing word.

Abercrombie and Fitch has been one of my most rewarding and frustrating recurrent trades over the years. At the moment, it’s on the frustrating end of the spectrum following Friday’s revelations regarding sales that saw a 17% price drop. That came the day after an inexplicable 5% rise, that had me attempting to rollover an expiring contract but unable to find a willing seller for the expiring leg.

Over the course of a cumulative 626 days of ownership, spanning 21 individual transactions, my Abercrombie and Fitch activity has had an annualized return of 32% and has seen some steep declines in the process, as occurred on Friday.

This has been an unnecessarily “in the news” kind of company whose CEO has not weathered well and for whom a ticking clock may also be in play. Over the past years each time the stock has soared it has then crashed and when crashing seems to resurrect itself.

Earnings are expected to be reported the following week and premiums will be enhanced as a result. While I currently have an all too expensive open lot of shares I’m very interested in selling puts, as had been done on nine previous occasions over those 626 days. In the event assignment looks likely I would attempt to rollover those puts which would then benefit from enhanced premiums and likely be able to be rolled to a lower strike.

However, if then again faced with assignment, I would consider accepting the assignment, as Abercrombie and Fitch is due to go ex-dividend sometime early in the December 2014 option cycle. However, I would also be prepared for the possibility of the dividend being cut as its payout ratio is unsustainable at current earnings.

 

 

Traditional Stocks:  Cypress Semiconductor, eBay, Intel, Mattel, Mosaic, Sinclair Broadcasting

Momentum: Abercrombie and Fitch, Twitter

Double Dip Dividend: International Paper (11/13)

Premiums Enhanced by Earnings: none

Remember, these are just guidelines for the coming week. The above selections may become actionable, most often coupling a share purchase with call option sales or the sale of covered put contracts, in adjustment to and consideration of market movements. The overriding objective is to create a healthy income stream for the week with reduction of trading risk.