|NEW POSITIONS/STO||NEW STO||ROLLOVERS||CALLS ASSIGNED/PUTS EXPIRED||CALLS EXPIRED/PUTS ASSIGNED||CLOSED|
|2 / 2||1||4||1 / 0||0 / 0||0|
Weekly Up to Date Performance
March 30 – April 2, 2015
It was yet another week of uncertainty, but at least the week ended on an up note.
There were 2 new positions opened this week and they lagged both the adjusted and unadjusted S&P 500. Those positions trailed the adjusted S&P 500 by 1.0% and under-performed the unadjusted S&P 500 by 1.1% in a reversal of last week’s comparative results.
The new positions lost 0.7% while the unadjusted S&P 500 gained 0.4% for the week and the adjusted S&P 500 gained 0.2% for that period.
Existing positions, on the other hand, again out-performed the S&P 500. They were 0.9% higher, which was 0.6% better than the S&P 500’s performance for the week. That’s better than last week, when they also out-performed the S&P 500, but still lost money for the week.
Out-performance is good, but only to a degree.
Positions closed in 2015 continue to out-perform the market. They are an average of 5.3% higher, while the comparable time adjusted S&P 500 average performance has been 1.6% higher. That 3.8% difference represents a 242.1% performance differential. That remains unusually high and is associated with the longer period of holding of those closed positions than is more typically the case. I would much rather see that differential be smaller but be based on far more assignments resulting in closed positions.
Despite a couple of large moves this week, it was like a number of other weeks so far in 2015.
Not much really changed and there certainly wasn’t too much going on to account for any of the moves seen.
With a couple of large declines this week I had lost much confidence that rollovers or assignments would happen and with only 4 days of trading each and every day and each and every big move was that much more meaningful.
Luckily, and again there really wasn’t too much reason, Thursday ended the week on a positive note, although it did look for a while as if it all would vaporize.
Somehow, when it was all done for the week all positions expiring were either rolled over or assigned.
I definitely wasn’t expecting that outcome.
I would have liked to have seen more than the single assignment that occurred, but even that one was in doubt until the final few minutes of trading, so I won’t complain. I’m happy to have even that small amount added to my cash reserves which are uncomfortably small right now.
That means that I’m not too likely to be in a big buying mood, or even in position to want to be buying when the bell rings on Monday.
When that bell does ring it may be in the position of having to catch up to whatever tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report will bring. Since bond markets will be open on Good Friday, while stock markets are closed, any significant reaction to the report on Friday could create a considerable gap when equity markets get ready for trading on Monday. Given how volatile the bond market has been lately, especially in response to the Employment Situation Report, I’d be happy to see a very mid-range number being released tomorrow.
It’s hard to imagine what kind of a number could possibly lead to stock market optimism, so I’d rather not see any reason at all for bonds to make any kind of meaningful move.
With a number of positions set to expire next week and a handful more the following week to end the April 2015 cycle, the only goal I would have in the event of any new purchases is to be able to recycle whatever money is put to work as quickly as possible. That would probably mean sticking to a weekly contract next week.
In the best of all worlds the market would begin the week as this week started on a strong move higher, as I continue to prefer any opportunity to sell calls on existing uncovered positions.
Friday’s apparent deal with Iran, to at least establish a framework for a nuclear inspection deal may again alter the energy pricing dynamic and that could again cause the market to react to energy prices.
With 3 days to digest what just happened, much of it may be forgotten by Monday, especially if the EMployment Situation Report is still on people’s minds.
Hopefully Thursday’s trading, which was essentially positive, will set the tone for the rest of the month as we await earnings challenges that actually start all over again next week.
(Note: Duplicate mention of positions reflects different priced lots):
New Positions Opened: CSCO, UAL
Puts Closed in order to take profits: none
Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the next weekly cycle: UAL
Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into extended weekly cycle: none
Calls Rolled over, taking profits, into the monthly cycle: ATVI, CSCO, GDX
Calls Rolled Over, taking profits, into a future monthly cycle: none
Calls Rolled Up, taking net profits into same cycle: none
New STO: ABBV (5/15)
Put contracts expired: none
Put contracts rolled over: none
Long term call contracts sold: none
Calls Assigned: MET
Calls Expired: none
Puts Assigned: none
Stock positions Closed to take profits: none
Stock positions Closed to take losses: none
Calls Closed to Take Profits: none
Ex-dividend Positions: EMC (3/30 $0.12), CSCO (3/31 $0.21)
Ex-dividend Positions Next Week: GPS (4/6 $0.23), WFM (4/8 $0.13)
For the coming week the existing positions have lots that still require the sale of contracts: AGQ, ANF, BAC, CHK, CLF, COH, DOW, FAST, FCX, GDX, HAL, HFC, .INTC, JCP, JOY, LVS, MAT, MCP, MOS, NEM, RIG, WFM, WLT (See “Weekly Performance” spreadsheet or PDF file)
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